Belaganj assembly by-poll will pan out a triangular contest.
Patna October 21, 2024: The Belaganj assembly by-pollis shaping up to be an interesting contest, with a triangular fight emerging between Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal United JD(U), and the relatively new contender, Jan Suraj.
Belaganj Assembly is considered a stronghold of RJD:
The seat has been considered a stronghold of the RJD, with Surendra Yadav, who has been elected MLA seven times, most recently representing the constituency. The seat is now vacant after Yadav was elected as an MP from Jehanabad.
In previous elections, Surendra Yadav has had significant success. In the 2015 assembly election, he obtained over 53,000 and his nearest rival of HAMS Mohammad Salim Ali obtained 48,000 votes.
In the 2020 assembly poll of Belaganj, Surendra Yadav won the seat with a margin of over 22,000 votes against JD(U) candidate Abhay Kushwaha.
With JD(U) expected to announce its candidate soon, it is preparing to challenge the RJD-dominant seat.
However, the Jan Suraj Party, which is contesting this seat for the first time, may play the role of a vote-splitter or a dark horse, aiming to take advantage of any dissatisfaction with the two dominant parties.
RJD will be looking to maintain its hold on Belaganj, while JD(U) and Jan Suraj aim to upset this stronghold. JD(U) has shown it can put up a competitive fight, as seen in the 2020 election where Abhay Kushwaha received over 55,000 votes, but RJD’s historical dominance makes them the party to beat.
Jan Suraj may hurt MY equation of RJD on Belaganj assembly by-poll:
This by-election could be crucial for all three parties, with RJD wanting to retain its influence, JD(U) eyeing an opportunity to reclaim around, and Jan Suraj hoping to make inroads in Bihar’s political landscape.
The Belaganj assembly by-election is set to be a closely watched contest, especially, given the demographic dynamics and political history of the constituency. Yadav and Muslim voters are particularly decisive in this seat, with Yadavs numbering around 70,000 and Muslims around 62,000 out of a total electorate of approximately 2.87 lakh.
This makes the seat a stronghold for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which traditionally commands strong support among Yadav and Muslim voters.
Since 2005, JD(U) has fielded various candidates in an attempt to win the seat, but they have consistently lost to Surendra Yadav of the RJD. In the 2020 election, JD(U)’s Abhay Kushwaha was defeated by Surendra Yadav, who has held the seat for several terms.
For this by-election, RJd has nominated Vishwanath Kumar Singh as their candidate, aiming to maintain their dominance in the constituency. The Yadav- Muslim alliance, a strong factor for RJd, will likely remain central to their strategy.
However, the Jan Suraj Party, led by Prashant Kishor, is attempting to disrupt this equation by fielding Professor Khilafat Hussain, a move that targets the Muslim voter base and seeks to fragment the RJD’s support in Belaganj assembly.
JD(U) expecting strong performance in Belaganj assembly by-poll:
JD(U) has yet to announce its candidate, but its challenge in Belaganj has historically been hampered by the Yadav dominance in the region.
However, if JD(U) selects a candidate with strong appeal to non-Yadav communities, such as Koeri-dangi (25,000 voters) or scheduled Castes (50,000 voters), they could mount a more formidable challenge.
The political scenario of Belaganj assembly constituency is further complicated by the entry of Jan Suraj which could act as a spoiler by pulling away a portion of the Muslim votes from RJD. Thereby creating a more open contest between the three parties.
Given the tight electoral calendar, with nomination closing on October 25, and voting scheduled for November 13, parties will be focusing on fine-tuning their strategies and securing a key vote bank. The counting on November 23 will reveal whether RJD can maintain its grip on Belaganj or if the by-election marks a shift in the constituency’s political landscape.
Also Read: Grand Alliance announced 4 candidates for the Bihar by-poll.
EOM